Desert Island Discs -- the iPod 5

I have always enjoyed listening to desert Island Discs on Radio 4, even if a lot of the time I think the celebs chosen deliberately doctor their choices to make themselves appear more 'pointy-headed' and serious than they probably really are. I mean I enjoy classical music a lot but if I had to choose 5 pieces of music would I really choose Mozart's Requiem? Also no-one ever has a 'guilty pleasure', the admission to actually loving Kylie or Boney M.

Well I doubt I will ever appear on the show but anyway thanks to the invention of the iPod I now know what my 5 songs would be since the genius little thing calculates your top 25 most played tracks. Well maybe my list has been skewed by the fact that its taken me 9 months to reach a 1000 songs stored but as of today it would appear that I will be stuck on a desert island with the following:

1. The Gambler -- Kenny Rogers (Yes I am as shocked as you)
2. Hell Yeah -- Neil Diamond
3. Help Me Make it Through the Night -- Sammi Smith
4. Galway Girl -- Steve Earle and Sharon Shannon
5. Teenage Kicks -- The Undertones

What worries me is that I seem to have a subconscious predilection for Country Music since also in my top 25 are 3 Johnny Cash numbers! Well I blame it on the genes -- my Dad after all was a Vic Reeves-style northern Club singer.

The McCain Strategy -- How it 'might' work -- but likely won't.

OK Firstly I think its highly unlikely that McCain can win.

Why?

There have been over 250+ polls since the last time McCain was ahead in any opinion poll and that was in September after the convention 'bounce'. Since then ALL 250+ polls have shown an Obama lead ranging from double digit to a single percentage point.

And then of course national polls DO NOT COUNT since this is a race run in 50 separate contests and in the states that count Obama has had the upper hand forcing McCain onto the defensive -- even making him defend his home state of Arizona!

So I think Obama will win and that he could win as many as 350 electoral college votes -- which wouldn't be a landslide but would be a whopping victory and a mandate for change.

HOWEVER there is a TINY chance McCain could pull off what would be the biggest upset in US history and here is how...

The 8-9% of undecided voters MUST break overwhelmingly for him, especially in states such as Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvannia. If they do we could get something like this.

Obama wins all the usual democratic states: California, New York, Mass etc
He also wins New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Missouri -- all of which were Bush states in 2004.

However he loses Ohio (Bush 2000 and 2004) and McCain manages to flip Pennsylvania (Democrat since 1992).

In addition McCain MUST see off the challenge in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia.

Result: McCain 270 Obama 268 -- closer than the 2000 result where Bush won by 271 to 266

So the key battlegrounds to watch are Ohio, Penn, Missouri and Virginia if it is close (which I still feel it won't be) and Virgnia is the one of these to watch the most. Why?

Take the scenario above... if Obama loses Missouri but wins Virginia then McCain can do all of the above (flip Penn and win Florida, NC and Ohio) but still lose.

In that scenario it would be Obama with 270 and McCain with 268.

However IF record numbers of young people do vote, and if (as early polling shows) African-Americans turn out in record numbers then any last minute surge of support from undecided voters can be contained.

America and the world should know in about 36 hours which way the wind will blow.

Trailers and movie food Grrrrr

Quick Sunday night rant...

went to the pictures last night to watch the new Bond film "Quantum of Solace". Bought the tickets in advance as it was the movie's first weekend and turned up about a minute before the scheduled start time of 8.15.

THIRTY minutes later the bloody movie still hadn't started! Now once upon a time in my childhood most main features were preceded by a movie short, usually either some rather dull and amateurish documentary or a cartoon (depending on whether it was the matinee performance or evening). Between the two, usherettes used to come down the isle selling ice cream tubs (small bite-size potions in a little pot) sweets and drinks. Then the lights would dim for a second time and there would be about 5 minutes of adverts by the infamous Pearl and Dean (ba-ba-ba-ba-ba-ba-ba-ba)... and off we'd go.

The shorts went years ago... and with them the usherettes (sadly) however the cinema companies seem to have decided that they will still use the time once filled by their presence to not only show ads bought by their sponsors but also for some shameless self-promotion. Why cinemas need to advertise I don't know, in most towns there is only one cinema so there is no competition and when you decide to go the movies its to see a movie not because you decide it would be nice to visit the Odeon because they have nice seats or nachos....

Which reminds me... since when did going to see a movie become an excuse to eat a 3 course meal during the movie! It used to be some ice cream a a little bag of chocolate.. now! Well yesterday there was a couple who walked in just as the lights were dimming trying to precariously balance a hot dog each, drowned in mustard, a jumbo pop corn (each!) and two giant sized coca colas!! Firstly it stunk, secondly they had to both get up and go for a pee during a movie which was only 1 hr 45 minutes long (quelle surprise given that they must have drunk 2 pints of pop).

Anyway... more pining for the past... a one-screen cinema, with rock hard seats, a smoking section (really) and a special £1.00 entrance on a Monday :-)

US Election

The picture says it all really (it is genuine – taken post debate after John McCain left the stage the wrong way and had to double-back quickly).

Obviously the collapse of the economy has been a gift to the Obama camp shifting focus away from the one area where McCain and the Republicans were strong -- foreign policy.

Of course the polls are all over -- can Obama really be pulling ahead in places like West Virginia and North Dakota -- and the actual result is likely to be closer than the 10-14% the latest national polls are showing. But aside a major gaffe or a terrorist attack I really can't see McCain coming back.

Of course in many parts of the world with age comes great wisdom and deference. However in the debates and on the stump McCain just look so old compared to the youthful glow and charisma of Obama.

Throw into the equation a whole host of gaffes and well...

However the one thing that has stood out to me in the past couple of months is just how cool and calm Obama looks. He acts presidential... his presence reassures. If a crisis struck you can imagine him responding calmly, weighing the options before acting. as for old John McC and the Pit-bull, well do we want a hot-headed erratic in a time of global crisis?

Anyway if, to coin an old adage, a week is a long time in politics, then 19 days is an eternity.

Oh and back to the economy for a moment.... it seems all those bankers and traders around the world just aren't wishing hard enough... remember you have to believe in fairies for Tinkerbell to come back to life!!

Tinkerbell Economics?

Interesting Question from a friend of mine today in a Facebook group I manage as part of my teaching.

"I'm confused, sir, Mr Teacher, sir, if the British Government has injected £400bn into the banking system because it's in difficulty because the banks aren't lending to each other and they're not lending to businesses and aren't lending to individual people, but the British Government didn't have £400bn to do this, so has had to borrow the £400bn, my question is this - Who lent the British Government £400bn?"

I had my students try to answer this... the only clue I gave them was Tinkerbell. In the end they got it... confidence

In Peter Pan -- Tinkerbell is dying because people no longer believe in fairies... but she will survive if enough people believe in fairies. In the play (not the book) Peter asks all the children to shout "I believe in fairies," to bring her back from the dead.

And so to Tinkerbell Economics -- if we all start beleiving in the markets again then like Tinkerbell it will all work again.

To which one student said " So the worst thing we can do is stop spending?" Answer -- of course... keep spending and consumer confidence can be restored. Stop spending and the deflationary impact of the crisis on growth will be exacerbated and magnified.

Sound implausibly simple?

This was in Newsweek:

"It's all about confidence, stupid. Every financial system depends on trust. People have to believe that the institutions they deal with (their "counterparties") will perform as expected. We are in a full-blown crisis because investors and financial managers—the people who run banks, investment banks, hedge funds, insurance companies—have lost that trust. Banks recoil from lending to each other; investors retreat. The ultimate horror is a financial panic; everyone wants to sell and no one wants to buy. Paulson's plan—still lacking essential details—aims to avoid that calamity." (Tinkerbell Economics)

http://www.newsweek.com/id/160098

Enough doom and gloom

Every day seems to bring news of the biggest fall on the stock market since the Jurassic era. I wonder how much all this reporting of doom and gloom by the media is actually responsible for investors and savers panicking? The BBC for example precedes any story it has now on the 'credit crunch' by a backdrop of share prices in the red and a graph with the trend going south at an alarming rate.

So enough already -- time we all started to be more positive about life, the universe and everything... and to demonstrate the fallability of the media here are some clangers and wonderful mis-prints/typos:

“A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth’s atmosphere.” — New York Times, 1936

“Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality in 10 years.” -– Alex Lewyt, president of vacuum cleaner company Lewyt Corp., in the New York Times in 1955

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.

"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." -- Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.

"With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn't likely to carve out a big slice of the U.S. market." -- Business Week, August 2, 1968

Misprints

People in Preston ward are invited to a meeting at 7.15pm tonight in St Mary's Church Hall, Brighton, to meet councillors and beat police officers. (Evening Argus)

The skeleton was believed to be that of a Saxon worrier. (Express and Echo)

The strike leaders had called a meeting that was to have been held in a bra near the factory, but it was too small to hold them all. (South London Press)

One man was admitted to hospital suffering from buns. (Bristol Gazette)

Police in Hawick yesterday called off a search for a 20-year-old man who is believed to have frowned after falling into the swollen River Teviot. (The Scotsman)

The first aid treatment for a broken rib is to apply a tight bandage after you have made your patient expire. (Manchester Evening News)

Pull Your Pants Up

Right another rant… this time against the almost ubiquitous male fashion trend of wearing your jeans/jogging pants so low that not only are the boxers on display but your arse is hanging out for all to see.

Guys – you don’t look cool and, unless I am corrected by female readers, it doesn't look hot either. There is a reason why we call them underpants – because they go under your pants!

In the words of the Denis Leary – “there’s 27 inches of underwear there, what the F**k is that all about, will someone please explain it to me”.

The ‘trend’ began in US gang culture but originated in the US prison system where belts are confiscated because they can be used to commit suicide or to strangle someone. Thus baggy jeans would fall down around the hips. Black and Hispanic gang culture mimicked this trend and eventually it became a global phenomenon. But I’m sorry when you are wandering around a shopping mall in conservative Malaysia as I was 2 weeks ago andyou spy scrawny Chinese kids with their jeans around their knees IT HAS GONE TO FAR!

So ‘Pull up Yur Pants’

And watch this… classic stand-up -- skip to 1 minute 14 when he starts his rant about coffee :-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-fvEuu_90Q