OK Firstly I think its highly unlikely that McCain can win.
Why?
There have been over 250+ polls since the last time McCain was ahead in any opinion poll and that was in September after the convention 'bounce'. Since then ALL 250+ polls have shown an Obama lead ranging from double digit to a single percentage point.
And then of course national polls DO NOT COUNT since this is a race run in 50 separate contests and in the states that count Obama has had the upper hand forcing McCain onto the defensive -- even making him defend his home state of Arizona!
So I think Obama will win and that he could win as many as 350 electoral college votes -- which wouldn't be a landslide but would be a whopping victory and a mandate for change.
HOWEVER there is a TINY chance McCain could pull off what would be the biggest upset in US history and here is how...
The 8-9% of undecided voters MUST break overwhelmingly for him, especially in states such as Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvannia. If they do we could get something like this.
Obama wins all the usual democratic states: California, New York, Mass etc
He also wins New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Missouri -- all of which were Bush states in 2004.
However he loses Ohio (Bush 2000 and 2004) and McCain manages to flip Pennsylvania (Democrat since 1992).
In addition McCain MUST see off the challenge in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia.
Result: McCain 270 Obama 268 -- closer than the 2000 result where Bush won by 271 to 266
So the key battlegrounds to watch are Ohio, Penn, Missouri and Virginia if it is close (which I still feel it won't be) and Virgnia is the one of these to watch the most. Why?
Take the scenario above... if Obama loses Missouri but wins Virginia then McCain can do all of the above (flip Penn and win Florida, NC and Ohio) but still lose.
In that scenario it would be Obama with 270 and McCain with 268.
However IF record numbers of young people do vote, and if (as early polling shows) African-Americans turn out in record numbers then any last minute surge of support from undecided voters can be contained.
America and the world should know in about 36 hours which way the wind will blow.
1 comment:
My darling Jason, you're more of a geek than I am. This is a fabulous analysis.
Have just finished reading both of his books; I think you'll be especially interested in The Audacity of Hope, as it deals with specifics on how to deal with race, foreign relations, the lost American dream, etc. Dreams from my Father is also wonderful, but more from a personal history background.
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