Desert Island Discs -- the iPod 5

I have always enjoyed listening to desert Island Discs on Radio 4, even if a lot of the time I think the celebs chosen deliberately doctor their choices to make themselves appear more 'pointy-headed' and serious than they probably really are. I mean I enjoy classical music a lot but if I had to choose 5 pieces of music would I really choose Mozart's Requiem? Also no-one ever has a 'guilty pleasure', the admission to actually loving Kylie or Boney M.

Well I doubt I will ever appear on the show but anyway thanks to the invention of the iPod I now know what my 5 songs would be since the genius little thing calculates your top 25 most played tracks. Well maybe my list has been skewed by the fact that its taken me 9 months to reach a 1000 songs stored but as of today it would appear that I will be stuck on a desert island with the following:

1. The Gambler -- Kenny Rogers (Yes I am as shocked as you)
2. Hell Yeah -- Neil Diamond
3. Help Me Make it Through the Night -- Sammi Smith
4. Galway Girl -- Steve Earle and Sharon Shannon
5. Teenage Kicks -- The Undertones

What worries me is that I seem to have a subconscious predilection for Country Music since also in my top 25 are 3 Johnny Cash numbers! Well I blame it on the genes -- my Dad after all was a Vic Reeves-style northern Club singer.

The McCain Strategy -- How it 'might' work -- but likely won't.

OK Firstly I think its highly unlikely that McCain can win.

Why?

There have been over 250+ polls since the last time McCain was ahead in any opinion poll and that was in September after the convention 'bounce'. Since then ALL 250+ polls have shown an Obama lead ranging from double digit to a single percentage point.

And then of course national polls DO NOT COUNT since this is a race run in 50 separate contests and in the states that count Obama has had the upper hand forcing McCain onto the defensive -- even making him defend his home state of Arizona!

So I think Obama will win and that he could win as many as 350 electoral college votes -- which wouldn't be a landslide but would be a whopping victory and a mandate for change.

HOWEVER there is a TINY chance McCain could pull off what would be the biggest upset in US history and here is how...

The 8-9% of undecided voters MUST break overwhelmingly for him, especially in states such as Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvannia. If they do we could get something like this.

Obama wins all the usual democratic states: California, New York, Mass etc
He also wins New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Missouri -- all of which were Bush states in 2004.

However he loses Ohio (Bush 2000 and 2004) and McCain manages to flip Pennsylvania (Democrat since 1992).

In addition McCain MUST see off the challenge in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia.

Result: McCain 270 Obama 268 -- closer than the 2000 result where Bush won by 271 to 266

So the key battlegrounds to watch are Ohio, Penn, Missouri and Virginia if it is close (which I still feel it won't be) and Virgnia is the one of these to watch the most. Why?

Take the scenario above... if Obama loses Missouri but wins Virginia then McCain can do all of the above (flip Penn and win Florida, NC and Ohio) but still lose.

In that scenario it would be Obama with 270 and McCain with 268.

However IF record numbers of young people do vote, and if (as early polling shows) African-Americans turn out in record numbers then any last minute surge of support from undecided voters can be contained.

America and the world should know in about 36 hours which way the wind will blow.

Trailers and movie food Grrrrr

Quick Sunday night rant...

went to the pictures last night to watch the new Bond film "Quantum of Solace". Bought the tickets in advance as it was the movie's first weekend and turned up about a minute before the scheduled start time of 8.15.

THIRTY minutes later the bloody movie still hadn't started! Now once upon a time in my childhood most main features were preceded by a movie short, usually either some rather dull and amateurish documentary or a cartoon (depending on whether it was the matinee performance or evening). Between the two, usherettes used to come down the isle selling ice cream tubs (small bite-size potions in a little pot) sweets and drinks. Then the lights would dim for a second time and there would be about 5 minutes of adverts by the infamous Pearl and Dean (ba-ba-ba-ba-ba-ba-ba-ba)... and off we'd go.

The shorts went years ago... and with them the usherettes (sadly) however the cinema companies seem to have decided that they will still use the time once filled by their presence to not only show ads bought by their sponsors but also for some shameless self-promotion. Why cinemas need to advertise I don't know, in most towns there is only one cinema so there is no competition and when you decide to go the movies its to see a movie not because you decide it would be nice to visit the Odeon because they have nice seats or nachos....

Which reminds me... since when did going to see a movie become an excuse to eat a 3 course meal during the movie! It used to be some ice cream a a little bag of chocolate.. now! Well yesterday there was a couple who walked in just as the lights were dimming trying to precariously balance a hot dog each, drowned in mustard, a jumbo pop corn (each!) and two giant sized coca colas!! Firstly it stunk, secondly they had to both get up and go for a pee during a movie which was only 1 hr 45 minutes long (quelle surprise given that they must have drunk 2 pints of pop).

Anyway... more pining for the past... a one-screen cinema, with rock hard seats, a smoking section (really) and a special £1.00 entrance on a Monday :-)