What Next for Burma -- more?

Found this interesting blog comment from BBC Radio 4 presenter Robin Lustig.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/worldtonight/2009/07/what_next_in_burma.html

Very interesting and unpalatable as it may be to consider perhaps it does represent the only way we actually can move forward? After all what we have is an unstoppable force (Suu Kyi) encountering an immovable object (the Junta).

Interntational Politics are very unpleasant at times and another reminder of how odious this regime is in Burma came to day when news broke of the Burmese military gang raping a young girl in the Shan state.

http://tiny.cc/SLSpw

While the butchers that run Burma should in an ideal world face the International Criminal Court for the crimes they have committed, the stark reality is they won't, nor will there be a UN Security Council sanctioned Global Arms embargo. If we are to avoid another decade of suffering for Burma, and another decade of house arrest for Suu Kyi we need some fresh ideas

Burma -- what next?

Well no surprise the military found Aung San Suu Kyi guilty. However there were two things that subsequently followed that did surprise me:

1) 5 minutes after the verdict was read out Burma's Home minister entered the court room and commuted the 3 year sentence to 18 months and indicated that Suu Kyi would be able to serve this from her home in Rangoon. (In other words an effective return to the status quo that has persisted for the past 20 years).

2) The UK government condemned the decision within minutes of it being announced on the wire with a statement which was in all likelihood drawn up in anticipation of a stiffer sentence.

The fact that the Burmese government intervened so publicly (in front of the invited foreign press and diplomats) to commute the sentence clearly was a piece of political theatre, but an act nevertheless that at least perhaps demonstrates some inkling of a willingness to compromise.

Certainly the act was sufficient to divide international opinion. While the UK, EU and the US united to condemn the verdict, which will shut Suu Kyi out of the country's scheduled election next year, it was received far less unfavourably by Burma's Asian neighbours, most notably in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), China and India. Indeed in Southeast Asia while there was 'disappointment' at the verdict there was praise for the decision to commute the sentence.

Yes the trial was a farce, and yes the verdict conveniently allows the Junta to remove Suu Kyi from participation in the 2010 elections. However in my humble opinion the West is missing a possible shift in the Junta's approach by dismissing the commutation of the sentence. To date the Junta has not balked from simply ignoring the international community, most visibly in the immediate aftermath of Cyclone Nargis last year, when it initially refused to allow Western aid agencies into the country. Clearly the Junta would have preferred to have imprisoned Suu Kyi for the maximum five years and to have dispatched her to a prison in the far North of the country away from her Rangoon support base and far from the eyes of the Western media. That is what we feared might have happened this morning. That they Junta did not do this IS significant.

So what next -- well there are already calls for further sanctions but herein lies a problem. While there is much more that Britain and the EU can do in particular, the fact remains that there is a 2600 mile hole in the already not particularly tight sanctions 'net' -- Burma's respective borders with China and Thailand. Without their participation in any sanctions regime the impact of Western punitive action is going to be militated against. And what is very clear is that neither China nor Thailand are going to join that regime. Similarly attempts to impose a global arms embargo or indict the Junta before the ICC will face the likely veto of either China or Russia on the UN Security Council.

So where next... well I don't profess to have the answers but clearly what is needed is first and foremost a concerted international approach and to achieve that will require some new thinking.

Lost in Virginia

Maybe I am running because I am bored? Hmmm well that or the jet-lag, either way another dawn run. The original plan was to run an 8 mile loop after yesterdays 4 mile loop. Well the best laid plans of mice and men and all that... I missed my turn-off and kept running until I passed a road that I had seen on Google Map earlier and knew was about 1 1/2 miles further along than the road I should've turned on. So I had to turn tail and retrace my steps. So my 8 mile run turned into a half-marathon by accident. And boy was it tough.

OK fitness wise I know I have this in me. 6 months of circuit training have given me the cardiovascular fitness I need, but my legs are not ready for this yet. After about 7 miles the knees began smarting, then the hamstrings and then the calf muscles. It didn't help that the route was very hilly -- "country roads take me home to the place I belong, west virginia, mountain moma" -- very apt.

At one point I did begin laughing hysterically for no apparent reason, at 10 miles I was singing Whitesnake - "Here I go again" at the top of my voice.. and at 11 I was praying for sight of Stevens Lane which meant I had 1 1/2 left to go. And people do this for fun!!

Still at least I have a mental idea of what a Marathon consists of, and I was able to eat a super-sized breakfast with no qualms... and Virginia is very pretty.

Roanoke, VA

In Troutville, Roanoke, VA with Melanie's Dad and his 2nd wife for a few days before Christmas. Flight was delayed 4 hours! Of course the airline lied, as they always do. First it was 10 minutes, then 30 minutes, then an hour. Why do they do that! Grrrrr... come the revolution!

Went for a run this morning, about 4 miles. First time I've ever ran before breakfast. Actually enjoyedd it though my legs felt like lead for some reason. Quite hilly around here so it was a bit tough! Nice view of the mountains and of some ludicrously large houses. Its an affluent neighbourhood Troutville. Mind you I do wonder how Americans can be so 'neighbourly' when their houses are so far apart!!!

Also plenty of totally over-the-top Christmas decorations... houses lit up like Blackpool illuminations! And ample proof yet again that having money does not mean you have any taste..

Marathon -- Progress So Far

Yup I am running a marathon -- the London Marathon in April next year to be precise.

By way of an update to all those who have sponsored me so far, and those thinking of doing so, I thought I'd give you a progress report.

It’s cold, it’s wet, it’s dark early -- welcome to England in the winter. Truly a miserable time to be doing any kind of outdoor exercise.

So for the most part I have been exercising indoors -- for those of you at Surrey you would have been able to catch me in circuit training 2-3 times per week.

Is it working -- well I've lost belly fat as none of my trousers fit me anymore! And I've dropped a few pounds too. That and my general stamina and fitness are definitely better.

I have also been venturing outdoors, freezing my ass off, but doing a regular 5K twice a week.

The plan is once I get back from Christmas state-side to begin a proper Marathon training programme but my running shoes will be in my hand luggage to the US and I will be keeping up a battle with the usual Christmas bulge.

For those of you who haven't sponsored me yet, please go here and give me some encouragement. I've a long way to go to meet my target of £1100.


http://www.bmycharity.com/V2/jasonsmarathonrun

For those who have -- thanks.

Jason

Desert Island Discs -- the iPod 5

I have always enjoyed listening to desert Island Discs on Radio 4, even if a lot of the time I think the celebs chosen deliberately doctor their choices to make themselves appear more 'pointy-headed' and serious than they probably really are. I mean I enjoy classical music a lot but if I had to choose 5 pieces of music would I really choose Mozart's Requiem? Also no-one ever has a 'guilty pleasure', the admission to actually loving Kylie or Boney M.

Well I doubt I will ever appear on the show but anyway thanks to the invention of the iPod I now know what my 5 songs would be since the genius little thing calculates your top 25 most played tracks. Well maybe my list has been skewed by the fact that its taken me 9 months to reach a 1000 songs stored but as of today it would appear that I will be stuck on a desert island with the following:

1. The Gambler -- Kenny Rogers (Yes I am as shocked as you)
2. Hell Yeah -- Neil Diamond
3. Help Me Make it Through the Night -- Sammi Smith
4. Galway Girl -- Steve Earle and Sharon Shannon
5. Teenage Kicks -- The Undertones

What worries me is that I seem to have a subconscious predilection for Country Music since also in my top 25 are 3 Johnny Cash numbers! Well I blame it on the genes -- my Dad after all was a Vic Reeves-style northern Club singer.

The McCain Strategy -- How it 'might' work -- but likely won't.

OK Firstly I think its highly unlikely that McCain can win.

Why?

There have been over 250+ polls since the last time McCain was ahead in any opinion poll and that was in September after the convention 'bounce'. Since then ALL 250+ polls have shown an Obama lead ranging from double digit to a single percentage point.

And then of course national polls DO NOT COUNT since this is a race run in 50 separate contests and in the states that count Obama has had the upper hand forcing McCain onto the defensive -- even making him defend his home state of Arizona!

So I think Obama will win and that he could win as many as 350 electoral college votes -- which wouldn't be a landslide but would be a whopping victory and a mandate for change.

HOWEVER there is a TINY chance McCain could pull off what would be the biggest upset in US history and here is how...

The 8-9% of undecided voters MUST break overwhelmingly for him, especially in states such as Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvannia. If they do we could get something like this.

Obama wins all the usual democratic states: California, New York, Mass etc
He also wins New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Missouri -- all of which were Bush states in 2004.

However he loses Ohio (Bush 2000 and 2004) and McCain manages to flip Pennsylvania (Democrat since 1992).

In addition McCain MUST see off the challenge in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia.

Result: McCain 270 Obama 268 -- closer than the 2000 result where Bush won by 271 to 266

So the key battlegrounds to watch are Ohio, Penn, Missouri and Virginia if it is close (which I still feel it won't be) and Virgnia is the one of these to watch the most. Why?

Take the scenario above... if Obama loses Missouri but wins Virginia then McCain can do all of the above (flip Penn and win Florida, NC and Ohio) but still lose.

In that scenario it would be Obama with 270 and McCain with 268.

However IF record numbers of young people do vote, and if (as early polling shows) African-Americans turn out in record numbers then any last minute surge of support from undecided voters can be contained.

America and the world should know in about 36 hours which way the wind will blow.